It must have been some time in April 2020 that I first saw a Tweet from a mathematician from Bristol - as I recall showing how the growth in COVID cases was properly exponential if plotted on a log scale. Along with a couple of others (all mathematicians and economists, not medical specialists) you rapidly became a go-to source for balanced analysis of pandemic data that seemed to be either deliberately manipulated or simply misunderstood by the so-called experts within or advising government - not to mention the charlatans and grifters in Independent Sage.
You continue to be a valued source of sanity and objective analysis (and increasingly, wry humour) for me across multiple platforms and will remain so as long as you can be bothered to continue pointing out the idiotic ways that our supposed betters use and abuse numbers for their own ends - not least in the monumental waste of money that was the COVID Inquiry.
Thank you for helping me stay sane and maintain a modicum of equilibrium for the last six years. Please continue.
I could not agree more. I think to our great discredit as a society we have produced very little evidence on exactly how to handle a pandemic from the one we lived through. We have lots of very strong opinions on the matter, but it's genuinely hard to make an informed argument for or against specific policies in the advent of a new pandemic in the future.
Yes, I agree. Arguably we might even be worse off "next time" - we can probably produce MRNA vaccines and rapid tests at scale, but all the arguments about whether people will use them haven't really moved any further forward
Definitely agree with that - I'm not sure how much better we could have done in Spring given half term travel etc, but Autumn and Winter still feel like it didn't have to be that bad
Yes. I think we could have avoided some of the deaths in Winter 20/21 while also reducing lockdowns & school closures, and being clear eg on outdoor activities being much less risky. I think there was a lack of clarity on it being airborne, and what that actually meant, for much longer than there should have been. I had very much hoped the Inquiry would focus on September 20 onwards.
I totally agree. I've probably banged on about this enough, but one thing that they could have reasonably looked into was why didn't we get lateral flow tests out at scale until March - if we'd managed that earlier then I think it could have been a game changer, certainly compared to all the "should the East Midlands have been one tier higher" stuff
All of the opening of this piece, with the suffering and scars caused by the pandemic merely highlights the missed opportunity. While the inquiry has been critical of aspects of our response, and in the case of your example not particularly evidence-based, it has always felt that directionally it was orientated towards backing up a particular consensus view and that the outcome should point fingers at agreed bogeymen.
Oliver
It must have been some time in April 2020 that I first saw a Tweet from a mathematician from Bristol - as I recall showing how the growth in COVID cases was properly exponential if plotted on a log scale. Along with a couple of others (all mathematicians and economists, not medical specialists) you rapidly became a go-to source for balanced analysis of pandemic data that seemed to be either deliberately manipulated or simply misunderstood by the so-called experts within or advising government - not to mention the charlatans and grifters in Independent Sage.
You continue to be a valued source of sanity and objective analysis (and increasingly, wry humour) for me across multiple platforms and will remain so as long as you can be bothered to continue pointing out the idiotic ways that our supposed betters use and abuse numbers for their own ends - not least in the monumental waste of money that was the COVID Inquiry.
Thank you for helping me stay sane and maintain a modicum of equilibrium for the last six years. Please continue.
Not sure about the wry humour these days, it's more like howling into the void, but thank you anyway
Au contraire. Some of your LinkedIn posts make me laugh out loud.
The effect of school closures alone will have ripple impacts on our society for years. As prominent epidemiologists warned at the time.
Yes, I agree, it's depressing
I could not agree more. I think to our great discredit as a society we have produced very little evidence on exactly how to handle a pandemic from the one we lived through. We have lots of very strong opinions on the matter, but it's genuinely hard to make an informed argument for or against specific policies in the advent of a new pandemic in the future.
Yes, I agree. Arguably we might even be worse off "next time" - we can probably produce MRNA vaccines and rapid tests at scale, but all the arguments about whether people will use them haven't really moved any further forward
Agreed. Plus the focus on decisions made in early 2020 as opposed to decisions made later when much more was known…
Definitely agree with that - I'm not sure how much better we could have done in Spring given half term travel etc, but Autumn and Winter still feel like it didn't have to be that bad
Yes. I think we could have avoided some of the deaths in Winter 20/21 while also reducing lockdowns & school closures, and being clear eg on outdoor activities being much less risky. I think there was a lack of clarity on it being airborne, and what that actually meant, for much longer than there should have been. I had very much hoped the Inquiry would focus on September 20 onwards.
I totally agree. I've probably banged on about this enough, but one thing that they could have reasonably looked into was why didn't we get lateral flow tests out at scale until March - if we'd managed that earlier then I think it could have been a game changer, certainly compared to all the "should the East Midlands have been one tier higher" stuff
The re-writing of history began before the pandemic ended.
It was an impossible situation for those making the decisions in an already divided country.
It always felt like a witch hunt from day one to me, so I’ve just kept well away from it.
I think if SARS 3 came along now we’d really find out how bad it could really be.
You were a star throughout the pandemic BTW. Centrism at its finest and what we needed as a country.
Thanks, that's very kind
All of the opening of this piece, with the suffering and scars caused by the pandemic merely highlights the missed opportunity. While the inquiry has been critical of aspects of our response, and in the case of your example not particularly evidence-based, it has always felt that directionally it was orientated towards backing up a particular consensus view and that the outcome should point fingers at agreed bogeymen.
Yes, I agree - I think it's down to a lot of it coming at it from a legal/political mindset and not a scientific one
“Apparent empathy”? You have no idea