There is so much revisionism going on. Even if you're not a fan of this government, they got many things right (and some things badly wrong). The roadmap out of restrictions in 2021 was pretty much spot on.
I backed EOTO at the time and still do. People forget the context: we needed cheering up after months of misery; hospitality was on its knees and needed a boost; most of us love going out for a drink or a meal and it was a treat; it was great to be out surrounded by others.
There is so much this inquiry needs to focus on which I fear it won't. E.g. the public health messaging: was scaring people really the best approach? When we knew how Covid was transmitted, why were we still instructed to obsessively clean surfaces and wash our hands? So much time wasted deep cleaning. Why not tell/reassure people that outdoor mask wearing was a waste of time? That people didn't need to jump out of each other's way in the street.
The messaging never got updated. To the detriment of our understanding of Covid and how people behaved and to the mental health of many. Had it been, even more people would have felt more confident/less terrified sooner.
Since we have had disagreements about EOTHO on twitter maybe it's worth saying that I essentially agree with all of your post. It can both have been highly counter-productive (my view) and not a huge disaster in the big picture (both your and my view).
And anyone who doubts that we ever overreacted should be reminded that in England, in February 2021 -- long after we should have known that outdoor transmission is minimal --, children were still barred from playing outside with their friends.
And maybe let me add another point we probably agree on. I hope the covid inquiry also highlights what the UK got right. We should examine what process led to these good decisions, and make sure we can repeat them next time around.
Looking at your plot, wouldn't you expect a lag between the EOHO scheme running and a rise in hospital admissions? I seem to remember the lag was 2 to 4 weeks, but maybe I am wrong. There seems to be a rise in admissions at the end of August into September. If the lag was a few weeks, isn't that what you would expect to see if the scheme did contribute to infections?
You're right that there would be a lag, of course, but I think it would be more of the order of 10 days or so. (You can see that admissions went in to decline at that sort of lag from the start of Lockdown 2 in November for example). I think ~24 days was the generally reckoned lag from infection to death.
From cases and ONS, I think there was an increase in infections in the final week of EOTHO, but whether that's directly attributable is hard to judge for me! (If EOTHO was terrible, why was there less of an effect in the first 3 weeks for example? But then I think the number of people doing the scheme did ramp up over time as well)
There is so much revisionism going on. Even if you're not a fan of this government, they got many things right (and some things badly wrong). The roadmap out of restrictions in 2021 was pretty much spot on.
I backed EOTO at the time and still do. People forget the context: we needed cheering up after months of misery; hospitality was on its knees and needed a boost; most of us love going out for a drink or a meal and it was a treat; it was great to be out surrounded by others.
There is so much this inquiry needs to focus on which I fear it won't. E.g. the public health messaging: was scaring people really the best approach? When we knew how Covid was transmitted, why were we still instructed to obsessively clean surfaces and wash our hands? So much time wasted deep cleaning. Why not tell/reassure people that outdoor mask wearing was a waste of time? That people didn't need to jump out of each other's way in the street.
The messaging never got updated. To the detriment of our understanding of Covid and how people behaved and to the mental health of many. Had it been, even more people would have felt more confident/less terrified sooner.
Since we have had disagreements about EOTHO on twitter maybe it's worth saying that I essentially agree with all of your post. It can both have been highly counter-productive (my view) and not a huge disaster in the big picture (both your and my view).
And anyone who doubts that we ever overreacted should be reminded that in England, in February 2021 -- long after we should have known that outdoor transmission is minimal --, children were still barred from playing outside with their friends.
And maybe let me add another point we probably agree on. I hope the covid inquiry also highlights what the UK got right. We should examine what process led to these good decisions, and make sure we can repeat them next time around.
Looking at your plot, wouldn't you expect a lag between the EOHO scheme running and a rise in hospital admissions? I seem to remember the lag was 2 to 4 weeks, but maybe I am wrong. There seems to be a rise in admissions at the end of August into September. If the lag was a few weeks, isn't that what you would expect to see if the scheme did contribute to infections?
You're right that there would be a lag, of course, but I think it would be more of the order of 10 days or so. (You can see that admissions went in to decline at that sort of lag from the start of Lockdown 2 in November for example). I think ~24 days was the generally reckoned lag from infection to death.
From cases and ONS, I think there was an increase in infections in the final week of EOTHO, but whether that's directly attributable is hard to judge for me! (If EOTHO was terrible, why was there less of an effect in the first 3 weeks for example? But then I think the number of people doing the scheme did ramp up over time as well)