Dec 10, 2023·edited Dec 10, 2023Liked by Oliver Johnson

Excellent, informative, balanced article, as always. I'd be interested if maybe one day soon (and yes I know you are very busy with the day job!) you could put some thoughts together about how significant this JN1 business is. I'm trying to read between the lines of the stuff that other sensible people like Paul and Meaghan have written, and I am having difficulty figuring it out. I know it is growing quickly, but what does the data tell us so far, including from the ONS and hospital figures? Is this another 2022 thing like omicron, or just another wave like we have seen over the last 12 months? Or do we just not know yet?

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Dec 10, 2023Liked by Oliver Johnson

Off the top of my head, that suggests for constant R and constant protective measures, it ahould be possible to produce a plot of relative Impact against Infection Time, which prima facie (a) would allow a Hot Take as to whether to be more or less concerned about a new Variant based on Infection Time, and (b) show the Worst Case Infection Time, as there will be reductio ad absurdum effects at both extremes🤔

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