Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Peter Ellis's avatar

My answer is even simpler: Pretending that lockdown was a sharp cutoff on March 24th is ahistorical bullshit and should be laughed at rather than analysed.

19th March - people told to stop all nonessential contact

20th March - schools close, pubs/clubs/theatres told to close early and remain closed

21/22 March - weekend, so workplaces were shut

23rd March - official full lockdown announced

24th March - date used as the ‘lockdown date’ in bullshit analyses.

26th March - lockdown legally comes into force

So schools were closed by Government order four days ahead of the ‘lockdown date’, entertainment venues ~3.5 days ahead of it, and workplaces were closed for 2 out of 3 days preceding the ‘lockdown date’. That fully and entirely explains any minor discrepancy.

Just like the actual legal changes that came into effect on the 26th, the lockdown announcement on the 23rd was a recognition of events that had already happened.

Expand full comment
Tony Holmes's avatar

The link to Alex Selby's response seems to be to David Spiegelhalter's contribution.

Expand full comment
13 more comments...

No posts