Being a sufferer of long covid I think that it's not only the death dashboard that needs to be taken into account with covid/viral waves, but the multi year on going costs of people being incapacitated by them. If each infection gives a small but non zero chance of incapacity that lasts years, maybe decades, that could lead to a greater cost to a country than just the emotional cost of people dying.
Sure, I agree it could be the case. But again I think it's on the people warning us about a wave to calibrate that - what exactly is the small but non-zero chance, particularly after multiple reinfections and injections for the majority of people.
Another factor in the mix is ‘asset value’. This is often hard to quantify hence not often considered … but is damn key as well. If the additional spend (and debt) is being spent wisely (eg on infrastructure that has a good economic payback longer term) then the additional debt is not a problem, just the same way a mortgage works. However if the additional debt is being spent on day-to-day stuff that has little return … then you’re storing up problems for the future.
Sure, I wouldn't argue with that - I think it's definitely reasonable to borrow to invest and do the whole Keynsian countercycle thing. But I just think planning to run trillion dollar deficits for ten years in a row even in quietish times doesn't set you up well for whatever the next big shock is (next pandemic, war or whatever)
Politics is too polarised. All or nothing is the way it goes nowadays.
Of course we don’t have to agree with everything or like the guys, but we can admit to them getting the odd thing right can’t we?
Elon is a genius and a huge disrupter and like many of that ilk he’s flawed and probably living in a bubble. He just needs to come off X and get on with it.
interesting discussion / comments. It appears there are unanswered questions within the time frame. For example why was it necessary for governments to insert purchasing power as 'loans 'into the Western economies from 2001 and why was there a subsequent banking crash 2008 that rolled on into the EU? Can we distinguish between wealth and income, given that ownership and decision taking depend at base on the functional industrial economy and the continuous mobilisation of energy and materials to get 'the work' done?
If 'loans' are claims on future energy and resources how are the latter secured? There is hint of a predicament here in the ratio of 'investment' in energy and materials needed to grow a surplus 'productive' return, which is then realisable as mobile 'profit'?
I think you could be perhaps pointing at 'efficiency' and 'problem solving' as a way to confront the hard reality? It is no longer sufficient, if it ever was sensible, to have a production line of battleships and in the absence of war tow them out to sea and sink them.
PS A thought on starlink... could this be a creative 'strategic' decision that avoids those vulnerable optic fibre cables on which the modern economy has come to depend? Might it also give control over say a future more realistically profitable Africa and other such less demanding parts, even to command if required a separate internet? (Biosphere downsides not part of the risk assessment, I guess.)
The numbers are all fine. But. There is no discussion of fiat currencies, the role of central banks (& who owns them... usually the gov) who holds gov debt and why. Although the example given is the US, some of the overall thrust could apply to the UK. In both cases, the cnetral bank (Fed, BoE) hold gov debt - & thus by extension: "I owe myself money" if you see what I mean (a fiction which the UK gov regularly goes through). If you want to see a good discussion on the political economy - https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/ oh & in the case of the Uk - a good lump of the debt is that held by the BoE - a wholly owned subsidiary of the Uk gov (we will pass over in silence the fiction of BoE independence).
Your comment made me smile. I know Richard quite well - his focus is fair taxation - and reality-based gov spending - i.e. use the BoE as an instrument to fund gov. Tax is there +/- to recover gov spending & +/- keep inflation under control. I don't think he is in favour of taxing us till the pips squeak!
Being a sufferer of long covid I think that it's not only the death dashboard that needs to be taken into account with covid/viral waves, but the multi year on going costs of people being incapacitated by them. If each infection gives a small but non zero chance of incapacity that lasts years, maybe decades, that could lead to a greater cost to a country than just the emotional cost of people dying.
Sure, I agree it could be the case. But again I think it's on the people warning us about a wave to calibrate that - what exactly is the small but non-zero chance, particularly after multiple reinfections and injections for the majority of people.
Another factor in the mix is ‘asset value’. This is often hard to quantify hence not often considered … but is damn key as well. If the additional spend (and debt) is being spent wisely (eg on infrastructure that has a good economic payback longer term) then the additional debt is not a problem, just the same way a mortgage works. However if the additional debt is being spent on day-to-day stuff that has little return … then you’re storing up problems for the future.
Sure, I wouldn't argue with that - I think it's definitely reasonable to borrow to invest and do the whole Keynsian countercycle thing. But I just think planning to run trillion dollar deficits for ten years in a row even in quietish times doesn't set you up well for whatever the next big shock is (next pandemic, war or whatever)
Politics is too polarised. All or nothing is the way it goes nowadays.
Of course we don’t have to agree with everything or like the guys, but we can admit to them getting the odd thing right can’t we?
Elon is a genius and a huge disrupter and like many of that ilk he’s flawed and probably living in a bubble. He just needs to come off X and get on with it.
Certainly wouldn't argue about the last sentence. Social media's not good for anyone
interesting discussion / comments. It appears there are unanswered questions within the time frame. For example why was it necessary for governments to insert purchasing power as 'loans 'into the Western economies from 2001 and why was there a subsequent banking crash 2008 that rolled on into the EU? Can we distinguish between wealth and income, given that ownership and decision taking depend at base on the functional industrial economy and the continuous mobilisation of energy and materials to get 'the work' done?
If 'loans' are claims on future energy and resources how are the latter secured? There is hint of a predicament here in the ratio of 'investment' in energy and materials needed to grow a surplus 'productive' return, which is then realisable as mobile 'profit'?
I think you could be perhaps pointing at 'efficiency' and 'problem solving' as a way to confront the hard reality? It is no longer sufficient, if it ever was sensible, to have a production line of battleships and in the absence of war tow them out to sea and sink them.
PS A thought on starlink... could this be a creative 'strategic' decision that avoids those vulnerable optic fibre cables on which the modern economy has come to depend? Might it also give control over say a future more realistically profitable Africa and other such less demanding parts, even to command if required a separate internet? (Biosphere downsides not part of the risk assessment, I guess.)
The numbers are all fine. But. There is no discussion of fiat currencies, the role of central banks (& who owns them... usually the gov) who holds gov debt and why. Although the example given is the US, some of the overall thrust could apply to the UK. In both cases, the cnetral bank (Fed, BoE) hold gov debt - & thus by extension: "I owe myself money" if you see what I mean (a fiction which the UK gov regularly goes through). If you want to see a good discussion on the political economy - https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/ oh & in the case of the Uk - a good lump of the debt is that held by the BoE - a wholly owned subsidiary of the Uk gov (we will pass over in silence the fiction of BoE independence).
Sure, let's all do Murphynomics. But please can you just give me some time to get the things I own transferred out of the country first.
Your comment made me smile. I know Richard quite well - his focus is fair taxation - and reality-based gov spending - i.e. use the BoE as an instrument to fund gov. Tax is there +/- to recover gov spending & +/- keep inflation under control. I don't think he is in favour of taxing us till the pips squeak!