I find it very interesting that there are those like yourself, that correctly test the hypothesis against the facts and then reject the hypothesis if the facts don't fit, whilst astonishingly there are others, many with a scientific education who simply try to reject or ignore the facts that don't fit with their preferred hypothesis. I see that as a significant failure in scientific education.
(I do accept that sometimes it is the facts that need refining as in the example where deaths plotted by date of reporting leads to a very different interpretation to deaths plotted by date of occurrence.)
Yes, I think it's reasonable to at least kick the tyres on the reported data, because the interpretation does change over time (for example, I think comparing positive tests across year to year wouldn't be a robust and useful measure), but for me there comes a point where lots of things are pointing in the same direction and Occam's Razor kicks in
Thank you for your calm measured analysis and clear explanations for non mathematical/scientifical people like me. Have you put it on Threads? There are a lot of ex-Twitter people over there.
Thanks! No, I haven't put it on Threads because I tend to assume I've got a face for Twitter and not for Instagram! But of course I'd be happy if it got shared there or anywhere else (Bluesky, Mastodon etc) - this Balkanisation of social media is kind of annoying!
I find it very interesting that there are those like yourself, that correctly test the hypothesis against the facts and then reject the hypothesis if the facts don't fit, whilst astonishingly there are others, many with a scientific education who simply try to reject or ignore the facts that don't fit with their preferred hypothesis. I see that as a significant failure in scientific education.
(I do accept that sometimes it is the facts that need refining as in the example where deaths plotted by date of reporting leads to a very different interpretation to deaths plotted by date of occurrence.)
Yes, I think it's reasonable to at least kick the tyres on the reported data, because the interpretation does change over time (for example, I think comparing positive tests across year to year wouldn't be a robust and useful measure), but for me there comes a point where lots of things are pointing in the same direction and Occam's Razor kicks in
I appreciate the update. I’m immune suppressed. I’d still long for a vaccine that stopped transmission.
Yes, it would certainly be nice - but I don't know how realistic it is to expect that any time soon.
Thank you for your calm measured analysis and clear explanations for non mathematical/scientifical people like me. Have you put it on Threads? There are a lot of ex-Twitter people over there.
Thanks! No, I haven't put it on Threads because I tend to assume I've got a face for Twitter and not for Instagram! But of course I'd be happy if it got shared there or anywhere else (Bluesky, Mastodon etc) - this Balkanisation of social media is kind of annoying!
I love the way that you analyse the facts, manage not to be swayed by opinions, and summarise what we know, rather than what others feel, Oliver 👍.
Thanks! I do my best, but of course everyone including me has their own biases and preferences about the whole situation now!
Fascinating insight! Thanks for your expertise!
No worries, glad you found it useful!
Well reasoned review of where we are now versus where we have been. Thanks for the update.